Friday, October 4, 2019

BQB's Red Friday Prediction


Who: Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
When: Sunday, October 6, 2019
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
Betting line: Chiefs by 11

It’s the Chiefs’ first primetime playing spot this season and as luck would have it it’s a home game. Speaking from personal experience, I can tell you that other thann my wedding and the birth of my two children, I have never experienced anything more thrilling then Arrowhead under the lights primetime.

Here we go.

Chiefs:

The Chiefs return home after a hard-fought win in Detroit. They will most certainly be revved up and ready to go back on their home turf. Rumor has it the Cheetah (Tyreek Hill) could make his return Sunday night’s game, having been out due to injury since during week 1. Damian Williams may make his return as well.

Our unicorn QB Patrick Mahomes to be in his usual form, throwing the ball all over the yard. They will certainly mix some run game in there as well with Shady McCoy and possibly the firm of Williams and Williams. That, however, will further serve to set up the play action pass, which is where Mahomes truly flourishes.

The Chiefs defense has struggled the most against teams like the Ravens and the Lions, who wanted to ram the ball down the Chiefs throat, and had a good amount of success doing just that. So they will have to be very aware of the run attack from the Colts because it is no secret that the Chiefs’ defense has been a little suspect lately. No doubt the Colts have some receivers like Ty Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle that can hurt them in the passing game.Bbut lately the Colts are a power running team with Marlin Mac as their premiere back. If the Chiefs defense doesn’t find the way to stuff the run, it could be a long night.

Colts:

The big storyline coming into this season for the Colts was the abrupt retirement of Colts franchise QB Andrew Luck. (I personally wish Luck nothing but the absolute best.)

Some wrote this game off as a win as soon as Luck made his departure, but I am here to tell you, don’t sleep on Colts’ new starting QB, Jacoby Brissett. Brissett was a student under Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick and served as Tom Brady’s back up. He would serve as a good starter for most of the teams in this league. He’s had a class A education in football so second guessing him would be a mistake.

As I stated above, I believe the Colts will rely heavily on a run game with the offense, due to the questionable run defense with the Chiefs, so expect a lot of the Mac Attack with some passing game sprinkled in with Hilton and Doyle. 

If I were the Colts defensive coordinator I would acknowledge that not defense and truly fully prepare for Patrick Mahomes. The best you can do is prepare for the pieces around him, which means man coverage - even double coverage - on guys like Travis Kelce and Hill (if he is on the field). Their best bet against Mahomes is to either handcuff his play makers, or get to Mahomes quickly and make him uncomfortable, and I’m not sure the Colts pass rush is up to that challenge.

Bottom line there is just very little you can do to truly defend against Mahomes and the legion of zoom, especially on the hallowed ground of Arrowhead.

BQB Prediction:

The Colts will be out for revenge, after the Chiefs embarrassed them in the divisional round of the playoffs last January with a 31-13 score. In addition, the Colts have accumulated several doubters since Luck’s departure and a win against Mahomes and the Chiefs on their home turf during Sunday Night Football would be a real confidence booster. Ultimately, this BQB believes the Chiefs will thrive under the primetime lights, surrounded by a sea of red and come out on top with a final score of Chiefs: 35 Colts: 24.

What about your predictions? Sound off in the comments.

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