BQB Red Friday Prediction Week 15: Donkey Week Part II

Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

When: Sunday, December 15, 12:00 PM

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

This is not one of those games early October games where the crisp fall breeze is just and the smell of BBQ and burning leaves is in the air. This is December football with snow and freezing temperatures in the forecast. It would be hard and brutal once that bitter cold hits. The hits are harder and they hurt more regardless of who is across the field from you.

Last time we played Denver was during Thursday Night Football of Week 7 at Mile High Stadium in Denver. What a tumultuous time. First, Mahomes went down with a dislocated knee cap after a quarterback sneak. After that the Chiefs defense sought revenge by sacking Broncos QB Joe Flacco 8 times. Eventually the Chiefs beat the pulp out of those Donkeys with a win of 30-6.  We can only hope for the same result, you know, minus the Mahomes getting injured part. The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs was way back in September 2015. Since then the Chiefs have won 8 straight games against their AFC West rivals. From the vibes I get around KC, most believe that the Broncos will timidly sneak into Arrowhead only to get slapped around for 3 hours a pre-determined outcome. I am not so certain. Some factors need to be accounted for.

No matter how dominant one team might be versus how poor the other team might be, these two teams are bitter rivals. They will always play each other hard. If you don’t believe that, just ask the 2018 Chiefs what happened against the Chargers at home last December.  Some Chiefs fans have already written off the Broncos because of their record and how handily the Chiefs beat them back in October. But I’m here to tell you that it is a rookie mistake to write off a divisional foe. The Chiefs have already secured a playoff spot. And yes it’s true the Broncos’ playoff hopes are slim to none. But don’t count them out because you know they would love nothing more than to spoil that predetermination and surprise everyone with a playoff spot of their own.

This Broncos team has discovered a new found vigor. It can be seen in the two previous wins over the Chargers and in an even more surprising win over the Houston Texans (a playoff-caliber team). In my opinion, the change in QB and the rookie, Drew Lock, currently taking the snaps has breathed a new life into this team. Lock was #42 in the 2019 NFL draft, having dropped further than those around him (including himself) thought he would. He was immediately regulated to the bench and then bumped down to injured reserve from a thumb injury in training camp. Those experiences left him with a chip on his shoulder and determination to prove himself which no doubt will only amplify on Sunday afternoon at Aroowhead. Lock was born and raised in Lee’s Summit and played college ball at MU. He is now the prodigal son returning home to what is now enemy territory.

And the Chiefs will be planning a little homecoming of their own.

Lock is 6’5” with an infectious swagger that has spread throughout his locker room in the last two weeks. The Chiefs will need to shake that swagger and confidence a bit to win the game. The Chiefs spent most of Donkey Week Part 1 in the Bronco backfield, fattening Flacco. But in Donkey Week Part 2, they should not expect this QB to be so stationary. The Chiefs defense has been very aggressive the last 3 weeks and they will need to keep that up this week. Look for them to rattle the rookie early on and as often as possible to keep him from handing the ball off to his playmakers, Sutton or Fant (the latter having sustained injuries from the victory over the Texans and still expected to play Sunday.)

The perpetual weakness of this improving Chiefs’ defense has been the run. Thankfully, in last week’s game the Chiefs’ D kept the Patriots running attack in check the entire game. Patriot’s leading rusher James White had a paltry 33 yards on 6 carries. Sony Michel was held to a poor 8 yards on 5 carries. The Chiefs D will need to put up a similar fight against Bronco’s running back Phillip Lindsay.

It’s no secret that our offense has been looking a little different than what we are used to. Instead of last season’s Mahomes and his offense accruing 300 to 400 yards a game and throwing the ball all over the yard, this season’s Mahomes has gone in favor of intermediate passes and getting a running game going. The addition of Spencer Ware has helped with the running game. It’s true, I haven’t seen Ware peel off any huge runs but I have seen him smash into a pile of players and simply drag them along to achieve his all-important first down. The Chiefs could do a lot worse than jumping out to an early lead, making the Broncos attack one dimensional. This would force them to play from behind the chains. While Lock has proven himself to be a skillful passer, the Chief’s jump out to the lead will force him to rely on the pass a bit more than he’d want to. This will expose Lock to a Chiefs’ defensive line that is chomping at the bit.

BQB’s Prediction:

All that being said, this would be a hard fought game, regardless of the Bronco’s record or what happened earlier in the season. I expect these teams to trade blows all afternoon. But I expect the Chiefs defense to keep improving and keep Lock and Company in check just enough to continue the Chiefs’ winning streak against Denver alive (and kicking).

Chiefs 28. Broncos 21

Author’s Note:
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