An article from Lee Judge not long ago sparked a
conversation with me and my office pals.
Judge discusses the "Three True Outcomes" in baseball: walks, strike outs and home runs.
He
shines light on the issue that all 3 of these outcomes are boring – in Judge’s
opinion.
Lee Judge is a very respectable
baseball writer, and he is a huge fan of the game itself, so I doubt he was
attempting to bash baseball. But he does make some points that I don’t think
even the most ardent of baseball fans would disagree with.
I’ll go through them one by one.
Walks:
When a pitcher walks a batter,
certainly watching a guy drag himself to first base is similar to watching someone
walking from one point to another - predictable and boring.
Look at it like this:
With that walk the pitcher has
put a man on base.
What if he does it again?
Now you have two men on first
and second base which sets up a very dangerous situation for the pitcher and a
very favorable one for the next batter up. If that pitcher walks a guy, he
could be in trouble. If he walks 2 guys, one good hit could bring one of those
guys home. If that pitcher walks 3 guys, a single home run will produce a grand
slam - the most coveted outcomes in baseball.
Judge is right. Walks can be
boring. But analyzing the outcomes and possibilities that come from that walk?
That’s exciting.
Strike Outs:
In my opinion, it is actually
rather tense, watching a duel take place between the batter and the pitcher. To
the untrained eye, it would appear that the pitcher is throwing the ball as
hard as he can with the batter swinging as hard as he can only to miss. But
there’s more to it than that.
The pitcher is trying a whole
mix of different pitches to try and induce those missed swings. He is throwing
fast balls, curve balls, change ups, sliders, cutting fast balls, to only name
a few. For every different pitch, there is a different swing.
The moment I find the most
exciting, is when the count is full, - the batter has 3 balls and 2 strikes.
- First outcome: the batter will connect with the ball and get a hit or a homer.
- Second outcome: the pitch is outside the strike zone, giving the batter a fourth ball and he can walk to first
- Third outcome: the batter connects with the ball, but hits it into foul territory and the duel continues.
Boring? To some.
To me? The defensive team is seemingly
just standing there, meticulously positioned, to pounce on that ball if the
batter hits it into play.
Someone like me tends to focus
more on the process. I believe that those like Lee Judge focus more on outcomes
of a strike out.
Homers:
It is true that I will probably
never feel the way towards watching a home run that I feel when witnessing a
Chiefs’ touchdown - but it is still an exciting moment.
There is something about hearing
Denny Matthews’ voice on the radio as he says, “It’s going, it’s going, they are
trying to field it, but they won’t get there, it’s gone!!!”
That moment’s excitement doubles
if the bases were loaded - making it a grand slam and all the players get to
run home at once.
In my short time of listening to
baseball, I have already heard several home runs be hit, and in almost all of
them, the slew of activity in those few short moments between the bat hitting
the ball and when it’s out of the park or fielded – is pretty riveting. So what
is a home run if not exciting?
On opening day of the this
season, the St. Louis Cardinals hit what was almost certainly a home run
against the Milwaukee Brewers to fans and players alike, except in that last
possible second as the ball was going over the fence, the Brewers’ (and former
Royal) Lorenzo Cane, jumped up in the air, and caught that ball just as it was
leaving the park, robbing the Cardinals of the home run and the victory of the
game.
And what about that legendary
moment in Royals history in the 80’s against the Seattle Mariners.
One of the Mariners hit what was
a sure thing for a home run, just to have Bo Jackson run five feet up the wall,
catch the ball, spin around and jump back down on the ground.
People would pay money to see
that again.
Is that boring?
Lee Judge isn't suggesting that
all baseball is boring, but that today’s baseball is possibly losing its
luster.
More batters are trying to
induce a walk - just so that they can get on base without having to work for
it. They are hitting homers, which is exciting for 5 to 10 seconds but gets old
after a while. They are striking out trying too hard to turn every at-bat into
a home run.
Baseball can be exciting, if you
stop trying to make it all about hitting a home run, or provoking a walk just
so you can get on base.
Lee points this out here:
“And they did it on five
singles, an error and a groundout. No matter which team you rooted for,
watching that inning unfold, pitch by pitch, hitter by hitter, tied your
stomach in knots.”
He also explains how baseball these days is way too much
about numbers which takes some of the action out of the game. The numbers guys
don’t like sacrifice bunts or stolen bases. They prefer home runs over singles.
I’ll tell you one thing though - sacrifice bunts, stolen
bases, singles, doubles or even triples are a lot more exciting than watching
some batter either swing forever only to strike out, because he just wants a
hit to better his numbers.
Judge also points out what is truly ironic. The MLB is playing
the numbers game to try and shorten baseball games. But in doing so – the
things they value the most, the walks, strike outs and home runs - will
actually make the game longer!
“These days, hitters are trying to walk and looking for home
run pitches to hit, and that means more pitches per plate appearance, more
pitchers used per game and longer ballgames. Stolen bases and sacrifice bunts -
two tactics that add excitement and action - are down. With so many guys
striking out and trying to hit the ball in the air, there are also fewer double
plays. You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes or even his dimmer companion Doctor
Watson to see a connection between the increasing influence of analytics and
the decreasing interest of baseball fans. And yet, nobody wants to get rid of
analytics.”
Listen, analytics have their place.
But in accordance with Judge’s article – it’s time to get
back to the basics of baseball.
Let’s get back to hitting singles, sacrifice bunts, double
and even triple plays, stolen bases because that makes for an exciting game of
baseball.
