BQB Red Monday Prediction: Chiefs v. Chargers

Who: Kansas City Chiefs VS LA Chargers

When: Monday, November 18, 7:15 PM

Where: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

A Must Win

I am seriously disappointed, as I believe we all are, that the Chiefs still seem to be under the curse of the Titans. It has been a total of 3 times since I moved here that the Titans have dominated the Chiefs. All 3 times were games that the Chiefs should have won.

Here is the reality. With the Raiders having an easy win against the dumpster fire that is the Bengals on Sunday, they are now breathing down the Chiefs’ neck for AFC West supremacy. If the Chiefs lose tonight, the Raiders will overtake them for first place in the AFC West. With the Chiefs having a bye next week, it would make it very difficult for them to make up for lost ground. Tonight is the definition of a must win for the Chiefs. And it can be done.

We have several factors working in our favor tonight. Patrick Mahomes stated in his last press conference that he feels better than he has since week 1 and a healthy Patrick Mahomes is worth about 14 extra points right there of “did you see that” plays.

Offensive Defense

The is the first time sense week 2 that the Chiefs will have their entire starting offensive line, giving Mahomes plenty of protection and allowing him time to do what he does best. Mahomes has all his weapons at his disposal. The Chargers boast a rather stout defensive front featuring Joey Bosa at defensive end and Melvin Ingram at the other end. They will be looking to make Mahomes and company very uncomfortable all night. But with the Chiefs 5 starters on the O line, I like the odds.

The Chiefs defense will have to step up this week with the added challenge of contending with not one but two quality running backs in Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. Containing both backs will be the toughest part of this challenge. Other than a couple of notable games, the defense  has struggled mightily against the run. But if the Chiefs are able to contain them, then it turns the Chargers offense into a one trick pony, with an aging quarterback in Philip Rivers (who is honestly losing his talent at that particular trick).

The Chargers have one major threat at wide receiver in Keenan Allen, but Philip Rivers seems to have trouble with the Chiefs. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Chiefs pick him off (maybe even more than once).

BQB Prediction:

The pressure is on and the Chiefs know their backs are against the wall. Sometimes that’s what it takes to see what a team can do. This is a divisional game and the Chiefs will come out swinging, and I predict they will walk out with a close win of 34-28.

BQB Red Friday Preview: Chiefs @ Titans

Who: Kansas City Chiefs at Tennesses Titans

When: Sunday, November 10 @ 12 PM

Where: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)

I’m trying hard to not let recent history get to me on this one. I know this is a different season with a different Chiefs team, but I believe remembering one’s past serves as motivation so here’s a quick recap of the Chiefs’ last two games against the Titans.

The Titans are an “under the radar team” so when people see them on the schedule, they usually mark them as an automatic win (I know I did both times I saw it and I was wrong).

During the 2016 regular season, the Titans came to Arrowhead on a freezing cold day in December and won because of a running play call made by the Chiefs on 3^rd and 4 that I did not agree with. Then the Chiefs attempted to freeze Titans’ kicker Ryan Succop, which I also did not agree with.

The second time they met was the AFC wild card game (also played at Arrowhead). The Chiefs stomped the Titans in the first half - leading them 21-3 by half time. But in the second half, the wheels seemed to come off. Derrick Henry rushed for 156 yards and dominated the Chiefs defense. Chris Jones was injured, Travis Kelce was injured, and the Titans ended the Chiefs playoff run very early, with a final score of 22-21 Titans.

Since I moved to Kansas City, we have not beaten the Titans. So I don’t know about the rest of you, but for me, this is a grudge match.

Chiefs:

Obviously since I am not a Chiefs trainer or a member of the medical staff nor am I Andy Reid, so I have no idea on if Patrick Mahomes will play or not. It is true that Patrick was projected to make his return this week against the Titans and it is also true that the last two days he has had “full participation” in Chiefs practice.

An argument could be made for sitting him for another week or two, letting him rest until after the Chiefs by week and bringing him back in December for a playoff run.  That is a valid argument. But if he is healthy, then I say, let him do what he does and play some football and start winning some games. The BQB predicts that Mahomes will play on Sunday, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all that if the Chiefs were to get a comfortable lead, to see Matt Moore come in and take some of the load off. If Mahomes does play, for the first time in several weeks he would have all his offensive weapons at his disposal which allows the fireworks to really be lit for the first time in a while.

My offensive game plan prediction is pretty much the same whether Mahomes or Moore plays. It would be nice to get a running game going which (other than that gorgeous 91 yard touchdown run from Damion Williams last week) has been somewhat absent from Chiefs’ recent history. I have heard rumblings in the sports radio media that LeSean McCoy is in the “Dog House” for his propensity for fumbling. While I share that sentiment, I say we let him out of this dog house and run free, so to speak. Because, if a running game going, the play action pass can be put into effect, allowing  Mahomes/Moore to get the ball to play makers like Kelce, Watkins, Hardman and the Cheetah.

Chiefs’ defense has a task ahead of them this week. I optimistically believe this can be accomplished by a Chiefs’ defense (that has been improving weekly) if they contain Titans’ running back Derrick Henry. Mitch Holthus described Henry as a BKWZ (big kid with zits), saying that Henry is like that kid in 7^th grade that matured quickly and no one wanted to tackle him, but when someone finally, Henry would just drag them as they hung onto his leg. Henry is not wiry and elusive. He is 6’3”, 238 pounds. He is a bruiser. He is a boulder rolling down a hill hoping to roll over some Chiefs. It will be up to the improving Chiefs D to contain him. If Henry is contained, and the Chiefs can jump out to an early lead as the Panthers did last week it will force the Titans to resort to a passing game, which is not the strength of the team or Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill.

The Titans have allowed a league record 38 sacks this season, and the Chiefs have had 15 in their last 3 games alone (9 of those coming against the Broncos)

Titans:

Titans’ starting QB Marcus Mariota was benched a couple weeks ago and replaced by second stringer, Ryan Tannehill. I covered Derrick Henry (the BKWZ) pretty well above but it bodes well to repeat that he will be the Titans’ main attack. The Titans are old school. They love to ground pound the ball, but this is becoming a passing league week by week, and if healthy, we have the best passer in the league.

The Titans’ defense may not be as disruptive in the backfield as other defenses are when facing the Chiefs, but they like to slap you, meaning they might let you run 20 yards or so right before they make a fist and punch the ball out at the end of the run. Also, they have a habit of slapping balls out of the air. They are a hardnosed defense that will make it difficult for Matt Moore to dink and dunk if that ends up being the case. This may cause trouble for a Chiefs run game that has struggled of late. They may not be as disruptive in the backfield but they still rank 8^th in the league for sacks with 25 on the season.

Blind QB Prediction:

While in recent years the Titans have seemed to have the Chiefs’ number, I do believe they have misplaced it. Whether it’s Mahomes or Moore, I believe the Chiefs avenge the playoff loss at home and walk out of Tennessee with the W.

Chiefs 33. Titans 24.

Bad for Business Part II: Mayfield & the Browns

During this past off season, no team received more hype than the Cleveland Browns and their star QB Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield brought them to a 7-9 season last year which was the best they’ve had in years. With the additional signings of Odell Beckham, Jr. and Kareem Hunt, they were primed for a fantastic season going into 2020. Experts had them winning the AFC North, going to the playoffs and even winning the Super Bowl this year. 

And just like that – as is so common in sports sometimes – the Browns went from being everyone’s favorite underdogs to…just another football team. 

How?

Head Coach:

First off, Freddy Kitchens might be a good coordinator, might even be a good head coach someday, but that day is not today. Many have questioned why he was even hired to be the HC in the first place. I personally believe it was due to his existing relationship with Mayfield. His play calling has been rather suspect - as has his management of his players.

Some of the fault lies with GM John Dorsey for taking the opinion of a rookie quarterback on who should be the head coach of the franchise.

Offensive Line:

The Browns might have all these great targets for Mayfield to pass to. But how is he expected to make those passes when he spends most of the time either running for his life or tackled to the ground? Browns offensive line is not holding up its end of the bargain to protect Mayfield and give him time to make plays. You can sink all the money in wide receivers you want, but unless you have a stout offensive line protecting you it doesn’t really matter.

When Mayfield is left standing, exactly who is he targeting? One of the loudest trades during the off season, was the Browns trade to the Giants for Odell Beckham Jr. There has been precious little to show for it. OBJ, arguably one of the most prolific receivers in football, has had only one touchdown catch all season. In one game he was only targeted 7 times. Two out of those were drops. This is prompting the debate: is OBJ’s season a disappointment or is he a victim of circumstance. I lean more towards the latter. He can’t throw the ball to himself.

Baker Mayfield:

What I believe is the Browns’ biggest issue this season is their star QB, Baker Mayfield. Coming out of college, I was a huge fan of Baker Mayfield. During Mayfield’s college career, he had many moments that made him a rather polarizing figure in the eyes of many college football fans. He planted flags in fields, grabbed his crotch at his opponents and several other antics both on and off the field. For the most part people put up with them. A lot even liked them because it added a certain flare and theatrics that the game was lacking. Most were - at least - alright with them because he was winning. 

Now that he is playing with the big boys his controversial statements, controversial actions both on and off the field in addition to blowing up at reporters are no longer brushed aside as they were when he played college ball. “Well, he is just a kid” is no longer a reasonable excuse. Additionally, he isn’t winning games. It seems to me that a fan base in a world where anyone who can tweet or type thinks they can work for ESPN, has a lot less tolerance for Mayfield’s antics when he is throwing more interceptions than he is touchdown passes. What I said about his offensive line above is true, but at some point, Baker is going to have to shoulder some of that blame.

The buzz around the grid iron questions whether Baker was even that talented in the first place or was he just that overrated people jumped on his talent band wagon. Was he just an average to slightly above average quarterback made to look good by playing in a conference in college but is seriously lacking in defensive talent? Is he really as good as he looked in college, or was he just playing terrible defenses week after week that made him look good? Now that he is playing in the big leagues are his true talents (or lack thereof) being exposed? 

Whichever side of this argument you fall on, the bottom line in my mind is this: Baker Mayfield is a talented quarterback. Yes he spent the majority of his college career playing in the Big 12, which is not known for its defense. But Mayfield put up pretty impressive numbers against big defenses like Georgia and Ohio State. While I am sold on Mayfield’s talent, I am not sold on his maturity. Mayfield has always played with a chip on his shoulder and in a lot of cases, it served him well on the field. But he has never been under this much scrutiny, has never had to face this much adversity with fans and foes alike. When the Twitter trolls and the primetime pundits give him a bit of criticism – he does not handle it well.  And he can’t keep his mouth shut. 

Listen, Baker, I know you’re frustrated, and no one blames you for being so. Your team is 2-6, after dropping one Sunday night to a terrible Broncos team. I know it’s hard to ignore the tweets and the comments and the criticism because it’s constant. But at some point, you have to learn to keep your mouth shut, be a leader and be an adult. This is not college anymore. You are not the great QB on this great team who keeps winning. The “don’t care what anyone thinks” antagonistic attitude isn’t cute anymore. Men who have been in the league a lot longer then you have, who have earned more than you have, are just going to be looking for an excuse to take your head off when they face you on the field, and it seems like every week you are giving them a new one.

Don’t get me wrong I am actually a fan of Baker Mayfield. I am a Sooners’ fan and he will go down in history as one of the greats. But right now, I just want him to keep his head down, shut his mouth and play ball - both on and off the field. He needs to learn to let his game speak for itself. 

Until he can do that, until Kitchens and the rest of the organization can start to put out the dumpster fire that is their “comeback season”, then I am afraid that I am jumping off the Browns and Baker Mayfield bandwagon. 

From where this BQB is sitting, Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns are bad for business.