BQB Red Friday Prediction Week 15: Donkey Week Part II

Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

When: Sunday, December 15, 12:00 PM

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

This is not one of those games early October games where the crisp fall breeze is just and the smell of BBQ and burning leaves is in the air. This is December football with snow and freezing temperatures in the forecast. It would be hard and brutal once that bitter cold hits. The hits are harder and they hurt more regardless of who is across the field from you.

Last time we played Denver was during Thursday Night Football of Week 7 at Mile High Stadium in Denver. What a tumultuous time. First, Mahomes went down with a dislocated knee cap after a quarterback sneak. After that the Chiefs defense sought revenge by sacking Broncos QB Joe Flacco 8 times. Eventually the Chiefs beat the pulp out of those Donkeys with a win of 30-6.  We can only hope for the same result, you know, minus the Mahomes getting injured part. The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs was way back in September 2015. Since then the Chiefs have won 8 straight games against their AFC West rivals. From the vibes I get around KC, most believe that the Broncos will timidly sneak into Arrowhead only to get slapped around for 3 hours a pre-determined outcome. I am not so certain. Some factors need to be accounted for.

No matter how dominant one team might be versus how poor the other team might be, these two teams are bitter rivals. They will always play each other hard. If you don’t believe that, just ask the 2018 Chiefs what happened against the Chargers at home last December.  Some Chiefs fans have already written off the Broncos because of their record and how handily the Chiefs beat them back in October. But I’m here to tell you that it is a rookie mistake to write off a divisional foe. The Chiefs have already secured a playoff spot. And yes it’s true the Broncos’ playoff hopes are slim to none. But don’t count them out because you know they would love nothing more than to spoil that predetermination and surprise everyone with a playoff spot of their own.

This Broncos team has discovered a new found vigor. It can be seen in the two previous wins over the Chargers and in an even more surprising win over the Houston Texans (a playoff-caliber team). In my opinion, the change in QB and the rookie, Drew Lock, currently taking the snaps has breathed a new life into this team. Lock was #42 in the 2019 NFL draft, having dropped further than those around him (including himself) thought he would. He was immediately regulated to the bench and then bumped down to injured reserve from a thumb injury in training camp. Those experiences left him with a chip on his shoulder and determination to prove himself which no doubt will only amplify on Sunday afternoon at Aroowhead. Lock was born and raised in Lee’s Summit and played college ball at MU. He is now the prodigal son returning home to what is now enemy territory.

And the Chiefs will be planning a little homecoming of their own.

Lock is 6’5” with an infectious swagger that has spread throughout his locker room in the last two weeks. The Chiefs will need to shake that swagger and confidence a bit to win the game. The Chiefs spent most of Donkey Week Part 1 in the Bronco backfield, fattening Flacco. But in Donkey Week Part 2, they should not expect this QB to be so stationary. The Chiefs defense has been very aggressive the last 3 weeks and they will need to keep that up this week. Look for them to rattle the rookie early on and as often as possible to keep him from handing the ball off to his playmakers, Sutton or Fant (the latter having sustained injuries from the victory over the Texans and still expected to play Sunday.)

The perpetual weakness of this improving Chiefs’ defense has been the run. Thankfully, in last week’s game the Chiefs’ D kept the Patriots running attack in check the entire game. Patriot’s leading rusher James White had a paltry 33 yards on 6 carries. Sony Michel was held to a poor 8 yards on 5 carries. The Chiefs D will need to put up a similar fight against Bronco’s running back Phillip Lindsay.

It’s no secret that our offense has been looking a little different than what we are used to. Instead of last season’s Mahomes and his offense accruing 300 to 400 yards a game and throwing the ball all over the yard, this season’s Mahomes has gone in favor of intermediate passes and getting a running game going. The addition of Spencer Ware has helped with the running game. It’s true, I haven’t seen Ware peel off any huge runs but I have seen him smash into a pile of players and simply drag them along to achieve his all-important first down. The Chiefs could do a lot worse than jumping out to an early lead, making the Broncos attack one dimensional. This would force them to play from behind the chains. While Lock has proven himself to be a skillful passer, the Chief’s jump out to the lead will force him to rely on the pass a bit more than he’d want to. This will expose Lock to a Chiefs’ defensive line that is chomping at the bit.

BQB’s Prediction:

All that being said, this would be a hard fought game, regardless of the Bronco’s record or what happened earlier in the season. I expect these teams to trade blows all afternoon. But I expect the Chiefs defense to keep improving and keep Lock and Company in check just enough to continue the Chiefs’ winning streak against Denver alive (and kicking).

Chiefs 28. Broncos 21

Author’s Note:
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BQB Red Friday Preview Week 14: Chiefs @ Patriots

Who: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

When: Sunday, December 8, 3:25 PM

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Most ardent fans know of the multiple narratives circulating going into this high profile match up. The most obvious being, the massive playoff implications on the line for both teams. While both spots have pretty much been procured for these two teams, the setting has yet to be determined. And this Sunday’s game could go a long way to determining that setting for this season’s playoffs.

Clearly, most Chiefs’ fans have vengeance on the mind – as I expect most of the Chiefs themselves do. The last time the Patriots met with the Chiefs, it was the AFC Championship game at Arrowhead. And their Super Bowl dreams 50 years in the making were crushed in overtime in a blow that no amount of beer or barbecue could remedy. Even though this isn’t a championship game, the Chiefs will undoubtedly treat it as such.

The curious thing about this matchup is just how different both teams look currently when compared to who they were during that AFC Championship game last January. Both quarterbacks, while still incredibly talented, are showing signs of their mortality. Tom Brady is clearly struggling in his offense this year and our beloved league MVP, Patrick Mahomes has struggled with injuries for the portion of this season in addition to key players in his offense. Statistically speaking, Mahomes is coming off his worst two games in his career, noticeably lacking in his usual video game numbers and Jedi master moves that we’ve all come to expect.

Last year, the Chiefs carved up the Pats’ defense in sharp contrast had the Pats to 3^rd and 10 in overtime on 3 separate occasions. Sadly, the Chiefs couldn’t stop them on any of those occasions so it’s safe to say that Sunday’s game promises to be a very different game of football.

One thing is for sure, the Chiefs’ offense has to step it up if they hope to win this game. In the last two weeks, the Chiefs’ offense has not been quite the firework display fans are accustomed to seeing. But as long as Mahomes is taking his snaps, this BQB doesn’t believe the offense will ever be bad. It’s just seemed to have slowed down and recent games have been carried mainly by big defensive plays and turnovers that put the offense in a good field positions. While that is a valid strategy against the Chargers and the Raiders, it may not be the best way to go against the Patriots on their home turf. Say what you want about the decline of the Pats’ offense and Tom Brady’s age, they are still the Patriots and he is still Tom Brady. 

But for me, it’s not Tom Brady that scares me. It’s the Pats’ defense. In recent weeks the Pats’ defense has been hailed as one of the best in the country which leaves cause for concern for a somewhat sputtering Chiefs’ offense. Players like Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Shady McCoy and many others, the offense is going to come alive with a vengeance to be the high powered space shuttle we’ve seen in the past. Based on what I’ve witnessed in the last few weeks, the Chiefs’ defense should have no trouble giving Tom Brady a long and unpleasant afternoon in Foxborough, especially since the Pats’ offense seems to be a shell of what it once was. But without an offensive showing from the league MVP and his playmakers, the defensive showing may not be enough. You cannot count on Brady throwing picks like Philip Rivers and Derek Carr to then give the Chiefs a cushy field position.

BQB prediction:

I am very hesitant to make a prediction for I truly believe if the Chiefs’ offense fires on all cylinders, they should walk away with a win and a virtually guaranteed playoff berth. But we are in the Pats’ home and they have not lost at home in two years.

I pray I’m wrong on this one but I am giving the nod to the Patriots, squeaking out of a close one.

21-17.

What are your thoughts? Sound off in the comments below!